2 March 2022, Current results from the project work of the Institute for Employment Research (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nuremberg, Germany)

By Herbert Brücker (IAB) Laura Goßner (IAB) Andreas Hauptmann (IAB) Philipp Jaschke (IAB) Kamal Kassam (IAB) Yuliya Kosyakova (IAB) Ignat Stepanok (IAB)

Excerpt in English

The war in the Ukraine will have a long-lasting impact on flight, migration and integration of refugees in Europe. At the time when this report was written, more than 500,000 persons migrated from Ukraine to the European Union (EU) and Moldavia since the beginning of the war. This is equal about 100,000 persons per day. War, forced displacements and persecution triggers much larger migration flows compared to economic factors. Moreover, the EU’s borders are largely open since no visas are required for Ukrainian citizens and the EU plans to grant temporary residence permits beyond the asylum system for the refugee population. Against this background, we expect a substantial incease in migration from the Ukraine, although the migration potential cannot be quantified in detail at the current state of research. So far the refugee migration from the Ukraine is concentrated on the neighbouring countries in the EU and Moldavia, which resembles by and large the regional distribution of migration stocks in the pre-war period. However, crisis can result in substantial diversion of migration flows as past experience has demonstrated. Thus, wealthy destination countries in the EU such as Germany might receive a higher share of migrants from the Ukraine compared to the past. Germany is therefore well adviced to prepare for large refugee migration inflows. In the past, immigrants from the Ukraine have been, with a tertiary education share of about 50 per cent, well-educated. 57 percent are females. The labor market integration of Ukrainian citizens matches that of the foreign population average in Germany, while individuals with a Ukrainian migration background, of which many have meanwhile German citizenship, fare considerably better in the labour market. The integration of the refugee population from the Ukraine can be improved if the EU and Germany clarifies the legal status immediately and open perspectives for obtaining long-term residence permits. Moreover, considering labor market criteria in the regional allocation of refugees can speed-up labour market integration. The fast integration into language- and labour market programs, labour market advice and job-placement activities, the acknowledgement of foreign educational degrees and supporting the acquisition of further degrees in Germay can also foster integration. Finally, providing education and care services is not only essential for the integration of children, but might be also highly relevant or the integration of the large female population. Integrating females in language- and labour market programs should be prioritized as well.

Courtesy of: Prof. Rüdiger Krause, Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen

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